Updated

Updated · Fox News · Aug 25

Analyst Backs Under 8.5 in Cubs-Diamondbacks as Holmes, Pfaadt Bring Sub-3.40 ERAs

Updated

Updated · Fox News · Aug 25

Analyst Backs Under 8.5 in Cubs-Diamondbacks as Holmes, Pfaadt Bring Sub-3.40 ERAs

Q: Is betting the under a dangerous trap when facing a volatile Cubs lineup capable of sudden multi-homer eruptions?

Yes, there is real trap potential, but the under is still defensible. The danger is obvious: Chicago’s lineup is unusually volatile because it is so homer-dependent. The Cubs have a 114 wRC+ and 176 home runs, with major power from Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ. That profile creates games that stay quiet for five or six innings and then suddenly jump because of two or three swings. For an under ticket, that kind of offense is always a threat. What keeps the under alive is the specific matchup. Brandon Pfaadt has been strong for two months, allowing 11 earned runs in 55 innings before his last rough outing, and he has handled Chicago well overall. Cubs hitters are batting just .165 against him, with Suzuki 1-for-12 and Happ 1-for-15. Clay Holmes has also been sharp, carrying a 2.49 ERA and allowing only one earned run over his last 12 innings. That gives the game a credible low-scoring foundation. The bigger risk to the under may be less the starters than what happens if either exits early. Chicago’s pitching depth remains a concern, and one bad bullpen inning can ruin a total even if both starters do their jobs. Pfaadt also just gave up three homers in his last start, which matters against a power-first Cubs attack. So the under is not a blind trap, but it is fragile. It makes sense if you trust six solid innings from both starters. If you are worried about bullpen volatility or another Cubs home-run burst, the danger is real.

1 articles · Updated · Fox News · Aug 25

Under 8.5 is the recommended play for the Cubs-Diamondbacks matchup, with the analyst avoiding a side and expecting a low-scoring game driven by the starting pitching.
Clay Holmes enters with a 2.49 ERA and 1.11 WHIP for Chicago, and he has allowed just one earned run over his last 12 innings.
Brandon Pfaadt has posted a 3.39 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for Arizona; over the last two months he threw 55 innings and gave up only 11 earned runs despite a rough last outing.
Cubs hitters have struggled against Pfaadt overall, batting .165 against him, with Seiya Suzuki 1-for-12 and Ian Happ 1-for-15.
Arizona could soon get Ketel Marte back as it chases a Wild Card spot, while the Cubs remain one of the National League's better teams despite ongoing pitching concerns.

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Fox News2h ago

Analyst David Recommends "Under 8.5" Bet for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Game

Can the Cubs' boom-or-bust offense overcome their historical struggles against Brandon Pfaadt to secure a crucial victory?

Will Chicago's patched-together pitching staff hold up under the pressure of a tense fan base and looming postseason expectations?

Is betting the under a dangerous trap when facing a volatile Cubs lineup capable of sudden multi-homer eruptions?

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1 total

Fox News2h ago

Analyst David Recommends "Under 8.5" Bet for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Game

Analyst Backs Under 8.5 in Cubs-Diamondbacks as Holmes, Pfaadt Bring Sub-3.40 ERAs

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