Updated

Updated · Fox News · Aug 27

Gotterup, Matsuyama and Henley Emerge as TOUR Championship Picks at +2654 and Higher

Updated

Updated · Fox News · Aug 27

Gotterup, Matsuyama and Henley Emerge as TOUR Championship Picks at +2654 and Higher

Q: Could a massive +3500 underdog truly conquer East Lake and steal the $10 million FedExCup prize this weekend?

Yes — a +3500 player such as Russell Henley absolutely can win at East Lake this week, though he is still an outsider rather than the likeliest champion. That price implies only a modest chance, but the Tour Championship’s current format makes an upset more realistic than it used to be. With the starting-strokes system gone for a second straight year, all 30 players begin at even par, so nobody gets a built-in head start on the $10 million FedExCup prize. Henley has a credible case beyond the number. He is one of the strongest East Lake performers in this field, with top-five finishes in three of his last four starts there, including a tie for second in 2025 and a tie for fourth in 2024. He also fits the course well: East Lake rewards precise tee-to-green play and Bermuda putting, both areas tied to Henley’s profile. This season he ranks eighth on Tour in strokes gained putting and 16th in strokes gained total, and he arrives with a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge plus seven straight starts without a missed cut. The hurdle is obvious: he still has to beat a compact field loaded with Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and other elite names. Scheffler remains the rightful favorite, and East Lake also strongly suits bigger hitters and top-tier ball-strikers. So the realistic answer is that Henley would not be stealing anything — he would be pulling off a legitimate upset. At +3500, it is plausible, not probable.

3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Aug 27

Chris Gotterup at +2654, Hideki Matsuyama at +3200 and Russell Henley at +3500 were highlighted as value outright bets for this week’s 30-man TOUR Championship at East Lake.
East Lake’s 7,455-yard, par-70 setup favors power off the tee, long-iron play and Bermuda putting, a profile the picks are seen matching particularly well.
Gotterup enters off a T4 at the BMW Championship and ranks second in the field over the last 30 rounds in both Strokes Gained off the tee and driving distance.
Matsuyama rates third in the model behind Scottie Scheffler and Gotterup, while Henley brings strong local familiarity and a run of improving East Lake finishes from T14 in 2023 to T2 last year.
The season-ending event is the second straight TOUR Championship with all 30 players starting at even par after the PGA Tour scrapped its unpopular starting-strokes format.