The Athletic Flags 10 CFP Sleeper Teams From Louisville at 13.9% to UCLA at 3.6%
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Aug 27
The Athletic Flags 10 CFP Sleeper Teams From Louisville at 13.9% to UCLA at 3.6%
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Aug 27
Summary
A 100,000-simulation playoff model put 10 under-the-radar teams in the 2026 CFP mix, with Power 4 sleepers defined below 15% odds and Group of 6 picks below 6%.
Louisville, Kansas State, Iowa and Missouri headline the Power 4 list, while Virginia and Houston also drew support because favorable schedules, veteran rosters or quarterback upgrades create realistic paths.
UCLA at 3.6% and Vanderbilt at 5.2% represent the longest Power 4 shots, with The Athletic pointing to Bob Chesney's arrival, Nico Iamaleava, and freshman Jared Curtis as upside swings.
Army at 5.5% and New Mexico at 4.4% lead the Group of 6 sleepers, helped by manageable conference paths and experienced rosters that could turn double-digit wins into playoff bids.
The sleeper list follows The Athletic's broader 2026 forecast released earlier Wednesday, which had staff picking Notre Dame for the national title and Jeremiah Smith for the Heisman.