Kalshi Gives Warsh 8% Odds of Saying Rate Cut at Jackson Hole
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 27
Kalshi Gives Warsh 8% Odds of Saying Rate Cut at Jackson Hole
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 27
Summary
Kalshi traders see little chance Kevin Warsh will use his Jackson Hole speech to signal September policy, assigning just 8% odds to “rate cut” and 16% to “bond market.”
Those low odds come despite last week’s bond-market stress, when the 30-year Treasury yield topped 5.3% before the Treasury doubled long-term debt buybacks to at least $4 billion from $2 billion.
A CNBC survey pointed the same way: 45% of respondents do not expect Warsh to expand on the rate outlook, and Goldman Sachs said he is unlikely to offer strong hints on next month’s decision.
Prediction markets instead expect Warsh to emphasize inflation and Fed process, with nearly 90% odds he says “inflation” and more than 70% odds he mentions the task forces announced in June.