Updated

Updated · The New York Times · Aug 27

U.S. Open Draw Hands Alcaraz Safiullin Test, Sabalenka Faces 3rd-Round Krejcikova Threat

Updated

Updated · The New York Times · Aug 27

U.S. Open Draw Hands Alcaraz Safiullin Test, Sabalenka Faces 3rd-Round Krejcikova Threat

Q: Will the immense pressure of defending her U.S. Open title cause Aryna Sabalenka's recent slump to spiral into a shocking early exit?

Yes, it is a real possibility, but an early exit would still be an upset rather than the most likely outcome. Sabalenka arrives in New York with clear warning signs. She has reached only one semifinal in her last seven tournaments, has not won a title since Miami, and has suffered three straight pre-quarterfinal exits, including a Cincinnati loss to qualifier Sara Bejlek after squandering big leads. That pattern suggests the issue is not just form but also match management under pressure. The circumstances at this U.S. Open add to that pressure. She is defending 2,000 ranking points, chasing a third straight title, and trying to protect the No. 1 ranking from Elena Rybakina, with Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula also in the mix. Even if Sabalenka has said she enjoys “the target on my back,” the stakes are unusually high. Her draw gives little room to settle. Early rounds may be manageable, but a possible third-round meeting with Barbora Krejčíková, followed by threats such as Diana Shnaider, Linda Nosková, Marta Kostyuk or Pegula, means she could be tested before fully regaining confidence. In a balanced women’s field, that is dangerous. Still, Sabalenka remains the top seed and one of the strongest hard-court players in the sport. Flushing Meadows has also been her best stage, and her power can still overwhelm almost anyone if she starts well. The pressure could trigger a spiral, but the more measured expectation is that she is vulnerable, not doomed.

Q: How could a sidelined Elena Rybakina still capture the world No. 1 tennis ranking without winning a single match in New York?

Yes. Rybakina could become world No. 1 even if she withdraws from the U.S. Open, because of how the WTA’s rolling 52-week ranking system works and because Aryna Sabalenka is defending far more points in New York. Sabalenka starts the tournament with 8,575 points, but she won the 2025 U.S. Open, so 2,000 points from that title are coming off her ranking. That effectively drops her to 6,575 before adding any new result from this year’s event. Rybakina, by contrast, is only defending 240 points from a fourth-round finish last year, so if she does not play, she would still sit on 7,901 points. That means Rybakina’s inactive total would still finish above Sabalenka unless Sabalenka wins the title again. A runner-up finish would leave Sabalenka on 7,875, still short of Rybakina’s 7,901. Only another U.S. Open championship would lift Sabalenka back to 8,575 and keep her ahead. The other contenders, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff, also begin too far back to pass a non-playing Rybakina unless they win the tournament. Pegula would reach 7,785 as runner-up and Gauff 7,764, both below Rybakina’s 7,901. So the pathway is simple: if Rybakina does not play, she can still rise to No. 1 provided Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff all fail to win the U.S. Open.

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Aug 27

Carlos Alcaraz opens his title defense against Roman Safiullin, a dangerous first-round opponent for a player returning after 4 months out with a wrist issue.
Safiullin’s big serve, fast attacking style and big-match experience could deny Alcaraz the time he may need to play into form; tougher tests later include Tommy Paul, Ben Shelton and Novak Djokovic in his half.
Aryna Sabalenka, the defending women’s champion and world No. 1, also drew a hazardous path despite a manageable start, with Barbora Krejcikova a possible 3rd-round opponent and Linda Noskova or Marta Kostyuk looming in the quarterfinals.
Elena Rybakina’s left Achilles adds another layer to the women’s bracket: a semifinal run would secure world No. 1 regardless of rivals, while any withdrawal could open her section for Iga Swiatek.
The women’s draw looks relatively balanced overall, while the men’s top half appears thinner early on with Jannik Sinner out injured and Alcaraz only just returning.