JAMA Authors Say Autonomous AI Will Surpass Doctors in 5 Core Tasks by 2030
Updated
Updated · WIRED · Aug 28
JAMA Authors Say Autonomous AI Will Surpass Doctors in 5 Core Tasks by 2030
3 articles · Updated · WIRED · Aug 28
Summary
A JAMA article by Ezekiel Emanuel, Vinod Khosla and coauthors argues autonomous AI will likely outperform both doctors and doctor-AI teams in five core medical tasks by 2030.
The authors say a review of studies published since Jan. 1, 2024 shows AI rapidly improving at taking histories, diagnosing illness, ordering tests, prescribing treatment and managing chronic disease — and that human oversight can sometimes reduce performance.
Emanuel said he had long rejected Khosla’s view that AI could replace much of physician work, but changed course after reviewing the recent evidence; the paper also discloses Khosla investments and Neal Khosla’s role at AI health company Curai.
The American Medical Association’s John Whyte challenged the paper, saying some cited studies are simulations and pointing to a February 2026 Nature study in which many patients struggled to use large language models effectively in real cases.
Even Robert Wachter, who has argued for doctor-AI collaboration, said the paper raises a serious possibility, though he maintained physicians will still matter for empathy, communication and other roles as AI risks de-skilling medical training.