Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 29
S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Holds Above 40 Since May, Echoing 1999 Bubble Warning
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 29

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Holds Above 40 Since May, Echoing 1999 Bubble Warning

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 29

Summary

  • The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio has stayed above 40 since early May 2026, a rare stretch that points to historically rich valuations and a higher risk of volatility.
  • That matters because the CAPE ratio has averaged about 17 since the 1870s, while the last comparable move into the 40s came during the dot-com bubble.
  • In 1999, the measure peaked above 44 in December, roughly four months before the tech bubble burst, making the current reading a closely watched warning sign.
  • AI-driven gains have helped push the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow to repeated record highs, but the report says elevated valuations alone do not mean investors should exit the market.

Insights

Could the historically accurate CAPE ratio be entirely wrong about today's AI-driven stock market?
With margin debt at record highs, what hidden catalyst could suddenly burst the AI stock bubble?
Will the massive debt funding AI trigger a catastrophic market collapse, or is this tech boom truly different?