Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 31
India's Economy Grows 7.8% in Fiscal Q1, Beating 7.1% Forecasts
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 31

India's Economy Grows 7.8% in Fiscal Q1, Beating 7.1% Forecasts

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 31

Summary

  • India expanded 7.8% in the quarter ended June, matching the prior quarter and topping a Reuters poll forecast of 7.1%.
  • Services and industry drove the upside: financial, real estate, IT and professional services stayed strong, while manufacturing and broader services improved sharply even as agriculture remained tepid.
  • Barclays said the Iran war had not hit growth as feared, noting robust consumer demand, solid auto sales and loan growth, and only 7 of 20 high-frequency indicators showing slower momentum than the previous quarter.
  • The Reserve Bank of India still expects growth to slow to 7.0% in the June quarter and 6.7% for fiscal 2027, citing elevated energy prices, supply-chain risks and possible El Niño damage to farm output and rural demand.
  • Those pressures are already feeding through to prices: inflation rose for a ninth straight month to 4.45% in July, though the RBI left rates unchanged in August.

Insights

Will India's surprisingly robust 7.8% growth mask a hidden rural economic crisis fueled by erratic monsoons and rising food prices?
With El Niño threatening food supplies, can booming real estate and fintech sectors save India's economy from an inflation crisis?
How long can India's domestic consumption defy global turbulence before soaring energy costs and supply chain disruptions break the momentum?