S&P 500 Holds Within 2% of Record as 50% September Hike Odds Flash Risks
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 31
S&P 500 Holds Within 2% of Record as 50% September Hike Odds Flash Risks
3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 31
Summary
The S&P 500 entered September still within 2% of its record above 7,800 after rising 12.72% in 2026, leaving stocks near highs even as analysts flag a growing list of warning signs.
A 10-year Treasury yield back above 4.7% and fed-funds futures implying roughly 50% odds of a September rate hike after Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks are seen limiting investors' willingness to add risk.
The VIX slipping below 15 has added to concern about complacency, while sentiment gauges show too many bulls and strategists point to 7,610—the June 2 peak—as a key S&P 500 support level.
Seasonality is not uniformly bearish: when August is positive and the S&P 500 is up 10% to 17.5% for the year, September has averaged a 1.0% gain and the final four months rose in 10 of 11 cases.
Market breadth remains another vulnerability, with Charles Schwab estimating Nvidia and Micron alone are generating about one-third of 2026 profit growth and the top 10 contributors about two-thirds.