Edouard Spreads Up to 22 Inches of Rain Across East-Central Texas as It Weakens

Q: Could a sudden shift in Edouard's path unleash the dreaded 9-inch rain bands directly over Houston's most vulnerable neighborhoods?

Yes, but it is not the most likely outcome. Forecasts late Monday kept Edouard’s heaviest rain bands mainly east and north of Houston, with most of the metro expected to receive variable totals and the highest risk focused east of Interstate 45, toward Mont Belvieu, Beaumont and Port Arthur. The broad expectation remains 2 to 5 inches for eastern parts of the region, with isolated 6 to 9 inch amounts possible where bands repeatedly pass over the same area. The reason forecasters are not ruling Houston out is that Edouard is a small, compact storm. Small tropical systems can shift their rain shield quickly, and even a modest wobble in track can move the corridor of training bands westward. The National Weather Service has warned that rainfall rates in tropical bands could exceed 3 to 4 inches per hour, enough to trigger flash flooding in urban neighborhoods if those bands stall. Still, current guidance does not support widespread 9-inch totals over Houston proper. Officials continue to describe major regional impacts as unlikely, with street flooding and localized flash flooding more plausible than a Harvey-like event. The main vulnerability would be low-lying, poorly drained areas and neighborhoods that flood quickly during intense short-duration rain. So the risk is real but conditional: Houston’s most flood-prone neighborhoods could be hit hard if the storm jogs and rain bands train overhead, yet the higher-probability target remains east of the city.

3 articles · Updated · WESH 2 Orlando · Sep 2

Southeast Texas was still seeing gusty winds and heavy rain Wednesday as Edouard, downgraded to a tropical depression after Louisiana landfall, drifted north-northwest at about 5 mph.
NHC forecast 5 to 10 inches of rain along Edouard’s path, with isolated totals up to 22 inches inland in east-central Texas, raising the risk of additional flash flooding.
The Piney Woods of eastern Texas faces significant flash flooding, while isolated moderate to major river flooding is also expected in the broader region.
Edouard’s sustained winds were about 25 mph with 30 to 40 mph gusts near the center; the system is expected to keep weakening and dissipate Wednesday night.