Updated

Updated · Space City Weather · Sep 1

Tropical Storm Edouard Nears Texas With 40 mph Winds, Threatening 2 to 5 Inches of Rain

Updated

Updated · Space City Weather · Sep 1

Tropical Storm Edouard Nears Texas With 40 mph Winds, Threatening 2 to 5 Inches of Rain

Q: Could a sudden shift in Edouard's path unleash the dreaded 9-inch rain bands directly over Houston's most vulnerable neighborhoods?

Yes, but it is not the most likely outcome. Forecasts late Monday kept Edouard’s heaviest rain bands mainly east and north of Houston, with most of the metro expected to receive variable totals and the highest risk focused east of Interstate 45, toward Mont Belvieu, Beaumont and Port Arthur. The broad expectation remains 2 to 5 inches for eastern parts of the region, with isolated 6 to 9 inch amounts possible where bands repeatedly pass over the same area. The reason forecasters are not ruling Houston out is that Edouard is a small, compact storm. Small tropical systems can shift their rain shield quickly, and even a modest wobble in track can move the corridor of training bands westward. The National Weather Service has warned that rainfall rates in tropical bands could exceed 3 to 4 inches per hour, enough to trigger flash flooding in urban neighborhoods if those bands stall. Still, current guidance does not support widespread 9-inch totals over Houston proper. Officials continue to describe major regional impacts as unlikely, with street flooding and localized flash flooding more plausible than a Harvey-like event. The main vulnerability would be low-lying, poorly drained areas and neighborhoods that flood quickly during intense short-duration rain. So the risk is real but conditional: Houston’s most flood-prone neighborhoods could be hit hard if the storm jogs and rain bands train overhead, yet the higher-probability target remains east of the city.

3 articles · Updated · Space City Weather · Sep 1

Edouard was moving west-northwest at 7 mph late Monday with 40 mph sustained winds and is expected to reach the Texas-Louisiana border around midday Tuesday.
Forecasters say the storm could strengthen into a stronger tropical storm—or briefly a Category 1 hurricane—just before landfall, though Houston is not expected to see severe impacts.
Areas along and east of Interstate 45 face the main risk, with 2 to 5 inches of rain, isolated higher totals and a Stage 2 flood alert for possible flash flooding.
Coastal areas from High Island to the Louisiana line could see tropical-storm-force winds under a warning, while Houston-area gusts are mostly expected in the 20s to 35 mph range.
The center is then forecast to track northwest near Conroe or Huntsville Tuesday night and dissipate south of Dallas, leaving wraparound showers into Wednesday.