Updated

Updated · USA TODAY · Aug 31

USA TODAY Sports Flags 11 Playoff-Shaping Games as No. 1 Ohio State Faces 3 Top-6 Tests

Updated

Updated · USA TODAY · Aug 31

USA TODAY Sports Flags 11 Playoff-Shaping Games as No. 1 Ohio State Faces 3 Top-6 Tests

Q: As the 2026 season kicks off, which preseason powerhouse will see their national title dreams shattered by a catastrophic early upset?

LSU looks like the most vulnerable preseason powerhouse to suffer the kind of early upset that badly damages a title run. The reason is the schedule and the timing. LSU opens Sept. 5 at home against Clemson, then goes to Ole Miss two weeks later. USA TODAY already framed those as part of a brutal early stretch that leaves the Tigers little margin for error in a deeper SEC race and a 12-team playoff format that still punishes multiple losses. Unlike Ohio State-Texas, where both teams could absorb a loss because of elite overall résumés, LSU starts with less cushion. There is also more uncertainty around LSU than other top contenders. Lane Kiffin is beginning his first season in Baton Rouge, and while some previews are bullish on transfer quarterback Sam Leavitt and the portal haul, several analysts have warned that expecting an instant playoff leap is risky. Clemson, meanwhile, is not entering as a lightweight despite its lower ranking. The Tigers return dangerous receivers, a proven pass-rush threat in Will Heldt and enough defensive talent to make the opener volatile. If the question is which favorite could see its national-title hopes “shattered” by a catastrophic early upset, Clemson over LSU is the cleanest answer because it would immediately put LSU behind in both playoff positioning and the SEC race before October. Texas losing to Ohio State or vice versa would sting; LSU losing to Clemson would feel far more destabilizing.

Q: Does the expanded 12-team playoff actually strip the suspense from these marquee games by offering a safety net to the losers?

No. The 12-team playoff changes the kind of suspense, but it does not erase it. The old four-team model made some September showdowns feel like elimination games. The 12-team field gives elite teams a cushion, so a loss in Ohio State-Texas or Georgia-Alabama is less likely to end a season. In that narrow sense, the stakes for losers are softer. But the evidence in the 2026 format shows those games still matter a great deal. Conference champions in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC get automatic bids, the top four seeds earn byes, and seeding now shapes home-field advantage, bowl path and title odds. A marquee win can move a team from merely “in” to hosting a first-round game or claiming a bye. That is a major difference. These games also remain critical because the margin for error is uneven. Teams like LSU, Clemson, Oklahoma and Penn State are not operating with the same safety net as preseason No. 1 or No. 2 teams. A second loss, especially in the SEC or Big Ten, can still turn a contender into a bubble team. The committee continues to weigh strength of schedule, head-to-head results and quality wins, so top-tier matchups are central to résumé building. The expanded field may actually create broader suspense. Instead of only asking who survives unbeaten, it keeps more teams alive deeper into November while making each marquee result matter for bids, byes, hosting rights and conference races. The stakes are redistributed, not removed.

3 articles · Updated · USA TODAY · Aug 31

11 regular-season matchups made USA TODAY Sports’ list of games most likely to shape the 2026 College Football Playoff, conference title races and national-title pecking order.
No. 1 Ohio State appears three times—at No. 4 Texas on Sept. 12, at No. 6 Indiana on Oct. 17 and hosting No. 2 Oregon on Nov. 7—giving the Buckeyes the schedule’s biggest direct impact on the bracket.
September carries early elimination stakes for several contenders, with No. 23 Clemson at No. 13 LSU, No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 16 Michigan, No. 24 Houston at No. 12 Texas Tech and LSU at No. 10 Ole Miss all highlighted.
October and November then shift the focus to conference control, including No. 3 Georgia at No. 11 Alabama, No. 14 USC at No. 17 Penn State, No. 7 Miami at No. 5 Notre Dame and No. 4 Texas at No. 8 Texas A&M.
The list underscores how the 12-team format still leaves little margin for error, especially for SEC and Big Ten powers chasing either league championship spots or at-large bids.