Updated
Updated · Euronews · Sep 2
ECB Set to Raise Rates to 2.50% as Eurozone Inflation Hits 3.3%
Updated
Updated · Euronews · Sep 2

ECB Set to Raise Rates to 2.50% as Eurozone Inflation Hits 3.3%

3 articles · Updated · Euronews · Sep 2

Summary

  • Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point ECB hike on Sept. 10, which would lift the deposit rate to 2.50% from 2.25% after August eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.3% from 2.9%.
  • ECB economists said the latest price surge is overwhelmingly an energy shock, with adverse supply factors accounting for about 90% of the rise in energy inflation between January and May 2026.
  • The bank argues this episode differs from the 2021-22 inflation wave because demand and fiscal stimulus are playing only minor roles, making the policy response more gradual than the forceful tightening seen then.
  • That shock has been tied partly to the Middle East war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz; the ECB waited until June 11 to deliver its first rate increase in three years, from 2.0% to 2.25%.
  • Even under the ECB's earlier optimistic scenario, inflation was not expected to return to the 2% target before 2027, and the persistence of the war now points to a longer fight to restore price stability.

Insights

Could raising interest rates to fight a geopolitical energy shock actually backfire by stalling Europe's green energy transition?
How will the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz permanently reshape Europe's energy security and inflation targets?