Cambridge Study Warns 1-in-6 Supervolcano Risk This Century as Preparedness Lags
Updated
Updated · AOL · Sep 1
Cambridge Study Warns 1-in-6 Supervolcano Risk This Century as Preparedness Lags
1 articles · Updated · AOL · Sep 1
Summary
A Cambridge University study in Nature says there is a 1-in-6 chance of a magnitude-7 volcanic eruption this century, warning governments are badly underestimating the threat.
Researchers said an eruption on that scale could disrupt global supply chains, cool the climate and hit food supplies, with effects comparable to a 1-km asteroid strike but far more likely.
The team said eruptions 10 to 100 times stronger than Tonga's 2022 blast occur about once every 625 years—twice as often as previously estimated—and only a handful of 97 large eruptions in 60,000 years have been located.
The last magnitude-7 eruption, Indonesia's 1815 event, killed about 100,000 people and lowered global temperatures by 1 degree, a reminder that today's world—with eight times the population and 40 times the trade—could be even more exposed.
The study urged better monitoring, public education and even magma manipulation, arguing volcano readiness gets far less funding and coordination than asteroid defense despite the higher odds.