Kalshi Strikes Weather Data Deal for $1.1 Billion Climate Betting Push
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Sep 2
Kalshi Strikes Weather Data Deal for $1.1 Billion Climate Betting Push
3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Sep 2
Summary
$1.1 billion in weather and climate wagers has emerged at Kalshi after a new deal gave it Weather Company data to verify event outcomes and place its markets on the Weather Channel app.
500% growth over the past year made weather one of Kalshi’s fastest-growing categories, and the company says those markets can serve as hedging tools and even improve forecasting data.
330 million Weather Channel users could now see Kalshi odds alongside forecasts, extending prediction markets from daily temperature bets to longer-term wagers on disasters, coral die-off and global heating thresholds.
Scientists and critics say monetizing climate impacts risks dehumanizing disasters, creating perverse incentives and blurring public understanding of official weather data, claims Kalshi, Polymarket and the Weather Company reject.
Last week’s federal appeals court ruling that states can regulate prediction markets like gambling adds pressure on the sector, even as firms pitch weather as a less politically fraught growth area.
Could betting on tomorrow's weather provide better climate forecasts than traditional science, or is it just gamifying global disasters?
As prediction platforms expand from weather to FDA drug trials, are we witnessing the future of forecasting or a massive gambling loophole?
$1.1 Billion Weather Betting: Kalshi’s Meteorological Markets, Legal Showdowns, and the Future of Climate Risk Management
Overview
In 2026, Kalshi and The Weather Company formed a groundbreaking alliance, using high-quality, verified weather data to settle prediction market contracts and boost public trust. This partnership fueled a 500% surge in weather contract trading, as businesses and individuals sought new ways to hedge climate risks. Kalshi’s integration into mainstream weather platforms gave the public a fresh, interactive view of weather probabilities. However, rapid growth triggered regulatory battles between state and federal authorities, leading to court splits and Supreme Court involvement. Meanwhile, institutional investors gained access to custom risk contracts, and global expansion faced strict European restrictions and compliance challenges.