India Defends 7.8% Q1 GDP Growth as Base-Year Shift Recast Prior Output

Q: If India's economy is officially smaller under the new statistical rules, how did the growth rate still manage to hit 7.8%?

India’s economy did not “grow to 7.8% because last year’s GDP was cut.” The reported 7.8% came from comparing output within the same newly rebased GDP series, not by mixing old and new datasets. What changed was the statistical yardstick. India shifted its GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23 and rebuilt the series using newer data sources, broader coverage and revised methods. That lowered the estimated size of some past quarters, including Q1 FY26, from ₹86.05 lakh crore in the old series to about ₹80 lakh crore in the new one. But that does not mean the economy suddenly shrank in reality; it means the measurement system changed. The 7.8% figure is real GDP growth, measured at constant prices. Under the revised series, real GDP for Q1 FY27 was estimated at ₹81.36 lakh crore, up from ₹75.46 lakh crore in Q1 FY26. That year-on-year increase yields 7.8%. Nominal GDP under the same revised series rose from about ₹80 lakh crore to ₹88.27 lakh crore, implying roughly 10% growth. Critics’ lower 2.6% estimate came from comparing ₹88.27 lakh crore under the new series with ₹86.05 lakh crore from the old series. Statisticians and the government say that is methodologically wrong because the two numbers are built on different base years and different estimation methods. So the economy can look smaller under revised rules while still posting strong growth, because growth is calculated from a re-estimated past base within the same updated framework.

3 articles · Updated · Hindustan Times · Sep 3

India said its 7.8% GDP growth in April-June 2026 was calculated correctly under the new 2022-23 base-year series, rejecting claims that last year's output was cut to inflate growth.
₹86.05 lakh crore for Q1 FY26 was the estimate under the old 2011-12 series, while ₹80 lakh crore reflects the revised series after updated data sources, broader coverage and methodological changes.
The government said the valid comparison is ₹80 lakh crore versus ₹88.27 lakh crore for Q1 FY27, not against the old-series figure cited by critics and opposition leaders.
The dispute flared after opponents argued growth at current prices would have been only 2.6% without revising the earlier quarter, turning a technical rebasing exercise into a political credibility test.