Study Finds 45% of Americans Calling Themselves Independent Are Reluctant Partisans
Updated
Updated · The Washington Post · Sep 3
Study Finds 45% of Americans Calling Themselves Independent Are Reluctant Partisans
2 articles · Updated · The Washington Post · Sep 3
Summary
Roughly 5,000 Americans tracked from 2016 to 2022 showed many people who leave the Democratic or Republican label do so out of dissatisfaction with their own side, not because they become neutral swing voters.
The research found the strongest predictors of switching to independent were negative views of one’s original party and dislike of that party’s 2020 presidential nominee.
Other political science work cited in the report suggests independents are less driven by partisan cues: among pure independents, concern about crime tracked local crime rates more closely than it did for strong partisans.
That matters electorally because independents are now a record 45% of Americans, while Trump’s approval among Republican-leaning independents fell to 52% in July from 76% in February 2025.
Turnout remains lower than among party loyalists, but leaning independents can still shape the midterms: 57% of Republican-leaning independents and 63% of Democratic-leaning independents said they were certain to vote.