Chimaev Becomes -5000 Favorite Over Woodley for RAF Moscow Match

Q: Facing staggering -5000 odds against an elite grappler, can Tyron Woodley pull off the ultimate wrestling upset?

Woodley can pull off the upset, but the evidence says it is highly unlikely. The betting line of Chimaev at -5000 and Woodley at +1200 reflects a major gap in expected wrestling performance, not just name value. Chimaev is the younger man at 32, has recent freestyle success, is a three-time Swedish national champion, and looked dangerous in his RAF debut when he pinned Dillon Danis in June. He has remained active in high-level grappling settings, which matters in a pure wrestling match. Woodley does bring real credentials. He was a two-time NCAA Division I All-American at Missouri, won a Big 12 title, and showed competitiveness in his RAF debut by rallying past Joaquin Buckley 14-8 after trailing early. That comeback suggests he still has toughness, balance and instincts. If he can slow exchanges, stay disciplined positionally and capitalize on a mistake, an upset is not impossible. But the main factors are against him. Woodley is 44, and while his wrestling pedigree is legitimate, he has spent most of the past two decades in MMA rather than active high-level freestyle competition. Chimaev is not just a former UFC champion crossing over; he is widely viewed as the naturally stronger and more current pure wrestler in this format. So the realistic answer is that Woodley’s path exists, but it is narrow. He would likely need a low-scoring, tactical match and a major Chimaev error. Anything close to a normal performance favors Chimaev heavily.

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Sports · Sep 3

BetOnline moved Khamzat Chimaev to -5000 for his RAF Moscow wrestling bout with Tyron Woodley this weekend in Russia, making the former UFC middleweight champion an overwhelming betting favorite.
Chimaev, 32, brings three Swedish freestyle national titles and a June RAF win over Dillon Danis, while Woodley, 44, counters with 110 college victories, a Big 12 title and a comeback RAF debut win last month.
FOX Nation availability for the bout remains unclear amid ongoing broadcast drama, leaving uncertainty over how fans will watch the matchup.
The fight sits on a broader RAF Moscow card that also lists heavily favored names including Jordan Burroughs at -4500 and Kennedy Blades at -4000.