Updated

Updated · Investor's Business Daily · Sep 5

U.S. Stock Futures Reopen Sunday as Apple Event and Inflation Data Loom Next Week

Updated

Updated · Investor's Business Daily · Sep 5

U.S. Stock Futures Reopen Sunday as Apple Event and Inflation Data Loom Next Week

Q: With mid-2026 inflation stubbornly high, could the upcoming CPI report force the Fed into a shocking rate hike instead of a pause?

Yes — a hot CPI could still push the Fed into a September hike, but it would not be a shock anymore. The backdrop has shifted meaningfully. Inflation is lower than its 2022 peak, but it remains too high for the Fed’s comfort: July CPI was 3.4% year over year, core CPI 2.5%, while the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge was 3.7% in July and had run as high as 4.1% in May. Fed minutes from July showed a 9-3 decision to hold rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, with dissenters already favoring a 25-basis-point increase. Officials also said inflation risks were tilted upward because of tariffs, energy shocks and AI-related demand. Chair Kevin Warsh’s recent Jackson Hole remarks hardened that stance. Markets that had leaned toward a pause now see the September meeting as roughly a coin flip, with fed funds futures and prediction markets pricing around a 47% to 56% chance of a quarter-point hike. That means a hike would be notable, but not truly surprising. What matters now is the CPI details, not just the headline. If August CPI comes in clearly above expectations — especially if core monthly inflation is firm and price pressures broaden beyond energy — it would strengthen the case that inflation is not easing fast enough. With unemployment still near 4.2% and growth holding up, the Fed has room to tighten. If CPI is near consensus, though, the likelier outcome remains a pause in September while officials wait for more confirmation from both inflation and labor data.

3 articles · Updated · Investor's Business Daily · Sep 5

Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures reopen Sunday evening, with investors heading into a week centered on Apple's iPhone event and key U.S. inflation reports.
Major indexes enter that stretch after a mixed week that improved late, rebounding above their 21-day moving averages following a difficult start.
That recovery came despite surging oil prices and rising Treasury yields, two pressures that could test whether the market's recent resilience holds.
The coming week's corporate and inflation catalysts are likely to shape the next read on risk appetite as traders gauge both growth momentum and rate expectations.