A revised 2026 study found payroll employment in the 64 U.S. cities hit hardest by 2025 ICE surges fell 0.43% below its expected path within six months—about 13,000 missing jobs in a 3 million-worker city.
The shortfall did not rebound and instead widened to an estimated 0.69% after 11 months in the smaller set of cities with later data, indicating the drag persisted through December 2025.
Excess arrests accounted for only 0.11% of the workforce over six months, implying roughly four jobs lost for every additional arrest rather than a one-for-one effect from direct removals.
The paper says visible, community-based arrests drove the damage more than jail-based transfers, as fear pulled workers out of jobs, firms faced staffing disruptions and local consumer spending weakened.
That pattern aligns with other 2026 research linking ICE activity to lower immigrant and U.S.-born employment, business closures and billions of dollars in lost spending.