Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Sep 7

Analyst Picks Bengals to Beat Cowboys 27-23 in Super Bowl LXI as Goff Wins 2026 MVP

Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Sep 7

Analyst Picks Bengals to Beat Cowboys 27-23 in Super Bowl LXI as Goff Wins 2026 MVP

Q: What hidden metric makes a head coach with a losing record the favorite for Coach of the Year?

The “hidden metric” is not wins alone but expectation-adjusted overachievement — how far a coach lifts a team beyond its preseason baseline. That is the logic behind Kellen Moore being floated for Coach of the Year despite a projected losing record. The same prediction package has the Saints winning the NFC South, and outside reporting shows New Orleans entered 2026 with only a 7.5 Vegas win total while also benefiting from one of the league’s easiest schedules. In award voting, that profile matters: Coach of the Year is often described as a narrative award that goes to coaches who outperform expectations, especially newer coaches reshaping a team. Moore’s case rests on the idea that a mediocre or slightly sub-.500 record could still look like a major coaching achievement if it produces a division title or clear turnaround. That is amplified by context around New Orleans. Coverage points to optimism about Moore’s second year, Tyler Shough’s development, additions such as Travis Etienne Jr., healthier skill talent, and a roster increasingly built to fit Moore’s offensive vision. The Saints also finished 5-4 down the stretch in 2025, creating a “team on the rise” narrative. So the real metric is surprise value: division title probability relative to preseason expectations, not raw record. If Moore wins a weak division with a roster that oddsmakers viewed as middling, voters could treat that as stronger coaching than a 12-win season from a team already expected to contend.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Sep 7

A preseason NFL forecast projects Cincinnati to edge Dallas 27-23 in Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium, giving the Bengals their first title after playoff wins over Buffalo, Baltimore and Denver.
Joe Burrow's Bengals are backed by an overhauled defense—highlighted by Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen and Boyd Mafe—while the Cowboys are picked to ride defensive additions such as Rashan Gary and Caleb Downs through the NFC.
Jared Goff is the analyst's MVP pick at +2500 odds, with Detroit forecast to finish 12-5 and win the NFC North thanks in part to a favorable schedule.
Other division winners in the predictions are the Bills, Ravens, Texans, Broncos, Lions, Saints and Rams; the Rams are pegged for the league's best record at 14-3.
The forecast also flags several bold calls, including the Eagles and Patriots missing the playoffs, the Broncos repeating in the AFC West, and the Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence leading the NFL in interceptions.