Fed Hike Odds Hit 58.4% for Sept. 16 Meeting as Trump Presses for Lower Rates

3 articles · Updated · Fortune · Sep 7

Interest-rate traders now put a 25-basis-point Fed hike next week at 58.4%, shifting expectations toward a move to 3.75%-4% at the Sept. 16 FOMC decision.
August payrolls added 162,000 jobs while unemployment held at 4.1%, and inflation was still 3.4% in the latest 12-month reading—well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Macquarie moved its base case for the first hike to September from December, Bank of America said a firm August core PCE print could push hike odds above 50%, and UBS expects hikes in September and December.
Trump and Vice President JD Vance are still urging lower rates, with Trump threatening to halt U.S. trade with deficit countries if borrowing costs do not come down.
That pressure lands on Kevin Warsh’s Fed as investors await Friday’s CPI report, with analysts warning that another inflation surprise could strengthen the case for tightening and lift long-end Treasury yields.