Updated
Updated · Fortune · Sep 7
Canada Pivots Trade to Asia as U.S. Share of Exports Falls to 65%
Updated
Updated · Fortune · Sep 7

Canada Pivots Trade to Asia as U.S. Share of Exports Falls to 65%

1 articles · Updated · Fortune · Sep 7

Summary

  • $20 billion of U.S. goods will face Canadian counter-tariffs of up to 50% from Sept. 8, underscoring Ottawa’s push to reduce reliance on a market that took 65% of exports in early 2026, down from 75% in 2024.
  • Energy is leading that shift: crude exports outside the U.S. reached $10 billion in 2025, while Alberta’s oil shipments to China and South Korea jumped 122% and 227% in the first four months of 2026.
  • Japan and South Korea are the most immediate targets because much of their trade with Canada is already tariff-free or soon will be, with Southeast Asia, India and Indonesia offering additional growth markets.
  • The bigger obstacle is awareness rather than market access: 73% of Canadians say they know little or nothing about South Korea, and 84% of 276 Indonesian firms surveyed knew little or nothing about their trade pact with Canada.
  • With Washington having declined to extend USMCA in July and imposed 50% duties on Canadian goods in August, Canada’s strategy is to build several smaller Asian markets rather than replace the U.S. with one buyer.

Insights

With historic tariffs sparking a trade war, will Canada's aggressive energy pivot to the Indo-Pacific permanently redraw North America's economic map?
Can Canada's existing trade pacts truly absorb the shock of losing its biggest market, or is the Asian pivot a desperate gamble?