2027 Social Security COLA Tracks at 3.1% as Medicare Surcharge Risk Shifts to 2029
Updated
Updated · 24/7 Wall St. · Sep 7
2027 Social Security COLA Tracks at 3.1% as Medicare Surcharge Risk Shifts to 2029
1 articles · Updated · 24/7 Wall St. · Sep 7
Summary
A 3.1% Social Security COLA now projected for 2027 would not raise Medicare premiums that year; any IRMAA impact would show up in 2029 because surcharges use income from two years earlier.
IRMAA works as a cliff: in 2026, single filers above $109,000 and couples above $218,000 move into a higher tier for the full year, not just on income above the threshold.
Crossing the first tier adds $81.20 a month to Part B and $14.50 to Part D per person, meaning a married couple on Medicare can face the surcharge twice.
Thresholds usually rise each year, so a COLA alone often is not the real trigger; Roth conversions, large IRA withdrawals, capital gains, home sales and even tax-exempt muni interest are more likely to push income over the line.
The report says retirees should plan around the two-year lookback—especially widows and recent retirees, who may qualify to appeal with SSA-44—and check income before December while adjustments are still possible.