QBERT Revamps 2026 NFL QB Ratings, Lifting ELWAY Signal by 10-15%

Q: Which legendary quarterback loses their top spot now that dropped passes and team context are stripped from their historical stats?

Joe Montana appears to be the legendary quarterback who loses the top spot under the revamped QBERT. The strongest clue is in Silver Bulletin’s own examples and methodology notes. The updated model explicitly removes credit tied to team strength and game context, gives quarterbacks credit for dropped passes, and rebalances the system in ways that are friendlier to quarterbacks whose raw production was less dependent on surrounding talent or touchdown variance. In the accompanying material, Silver Bulletin highlights Dan Marino’s “insane, early peak,” a sign that the new system boosts him relative to more team-supported legends. That matters because Montana has long been associated with elite supporting casts and strong team context in San Francisco, while Marino’s reputation rests more on individually driven passing production in less favorable circumstances. Once dropped passes are restored and team-context effects are stripped out, Marino is the type of quarterback expected to climb. So while the article does not spell out the leaderboard change in a single line, the evidence points to Montana being displaced, most likely by Marino, in the historical rankings.

3 articles · Updated · natesilver.net · Sep 5

The 2026 QBERT update overhauls how quarterbacks are graded and projected, with its developers saying the changes improve the model’s value to the ELWAY forecast system by 10-15%.
The biggest scoring changes give quarterbacks credit for receiver drops and defensive pass interference yards, cut the value of passing touchdowns by 50%, and sharply reduce credit for QB sneaks such as Jalen Hurts’ 30 over the past three years.
A broader refit using advanced data back to 2006 is meant to better balance mobile and pocket passers, while game-script adjustments were removed after the model found they mostly rewarded quarterbacks for being on strong teams.
Forward-looking projections also changed: interception rates are now regressed until several years of data accumulate, and injury risk is modeled statistically after the 2025 version understated weekly starter injury risk at 2-3% versus an observed 4-5%.
The landing page will update weekly during the 2026 season with ratings, projections, depth charts and historical comparisons; Tom Brady remains QBERT’s top all-time quarterback, Josh Allen opens as its current No. 1, and Patrick Mahomes is docked after last year’s ACL tear.