Shipping Faces 218,000-Bpd Fuel Oil Deficit as Wars and Refiners Squeeze Bunker Supply
Updated
Updated · Al Jazeera English · Sep 7
Shipping Faces 218,000-Bpd Fuel Oil Deficit as Wars and Refiners Squeeze Bunker Supply
3 articles · Updated · Al Jazeera English · Sep 7
Summary
Energy Aspects projects a 218,000-bpd fuel-oil deficit in the third quarter, the first shortfall since Q3 2025, tightening supplies for ships and power plants.
Middle East fuel-oil exports fell 45% year on year to 447,000 bpd from March to August, while Russian fuel-oil exports sank to a record-low 591,000 bpd in August after Ukrainian strikes on refineries.
Refiners are worsening the squeeze by diverting heavy crude residues into higher-margin diesel, petrol and jet fuel; analysts say global ship-fuel sales have already dropped by about 400,000 bpd from a year earlier.
Singapore, the largest bunker hub, is especially exposed because it imports more than half of the nearly 1 million bpd of fuel oil it consumes; its VLSFO price has jumped 76% to nearly $825 a tonne.
Higher bunker prices feed directly into freight rates and then consumer and industrial costs, with economists saying prices may stay elevated until Middle East conflict disruptions ease.