Updated
Updated · Al Jazeera English · Sep 7
Shipping Faces 218,000-Bpd Fuel Oil Deficit as Wars and Refiners Squeeze Bunker Supply
Updated
Updated · Al Jazeera English · Sep 7

Shipping Faces 218,000-Bpd Fuel Oil Deficit as Wars and Refiners Squeeze Bunker Supply

3 articles · Updated · Al Jazeera English · Sep 7

Summary

  • Energy Aspects projects a 218,000-bpd fuel-oil deficit in the third quarter, the first shortfall since Q3 2025, tightening supplies for ships and power plants.
  • Middle East fuel-oil exports fell 45% year on year to 447,000 bpd from March to August, while Russian fuel-oil exports sank to a record-low 591,000 bpd in August after Ukrainian strikes on refineries.
  • Refiners are worsening the squeeze by diverting heavy crude residues into higher-margin diesel, petrol and jet fuel; analysts say global ship-fuel sales have already dropped by about 400,000 bpd from a year earlier.
  • Singapore, the largest bunker hub, is especially exposed because it imports more than half of the nearly 1 million bpd of fuel oil it consumes; its VLSFO price has jumped 76% to nearly $825 a tonne.
  • Higher bunker prices feed directly into freight rates and then consumer and industrial costs, with economists saying prices may stay elevated until Middle East conflict disruptions ease.

Insights

As war and refinery shifts choke off bunker fuel, will the ensuing freight cost explosion trigger a new wave of global inflation?
With shadow fleets and drone strikes crippling traditional oil routes, can the rapid rise of LNG bunkering save global trade?
If refiners abandon heavy fuel for diesel profits, who will bear the ultimate cost of keeping the world's commercial ships afloat?