Five of the analyst’s seven Week 1 bets back continuity over projection: Patriots +3.5, Colts +3.5, Cowboys -2.5, Jets +1.5 and Cardinals team total over 17.5.
The core thesis is that Week 1 markets misprice teams with new coordinators, rebuilt lines or rookie-driven optimism, while undervaluing offenses and systems that already know what they are.
Seattle, Baltimore and Tennessee are singled out as overpriced favorites because of offensive turnover or roster changes, while New England and Indianapolis are framed as steadier than their lines suggest.
The analyst is more cautious where uncertainty is harder to quantify, leaning 49ers +3.5 in Melbourne but preferring alternate-spread exposure because travel effects on the Rams and 49ers are mostly guesswork.
Kansas City-Denver is the lone total play at under 44.5, extending the broader view that early-season rust and unresolved 2025 flaws can matter more than offseason narratives in Week 1.