August CPI Seen Rising 0.4% as 3.3% Inflation May Sway Sept. 16 Fed Rate Call
Updated
Updated · Morningstar · Sep 9
August CPI Seen Rising 0.4% as 3.3% Inflation May Sway Sept. 16 Fed Rate Call
3 articles · Updated · Morningstar · Sep 9
Summary
Economists expect Friday’s August CPI to show prices rose 0.4% from July, a three-month high, while annual inflation eased to 3.3% from 3.4%.
Gasoline and broader energy costs are driving the monthly pickup, with oil disruptions tied to renewed Iran-war fighting offsetting softer housing inflation.
Core CPI is forecast at 0.2% on the month and 2.4% on the year, with cooling rents helping, though AI data-center demand and airfare costs could keep underlying prices firm.
A hotter-than-expected reading could tip the Federal Reserve toward a quarter-point hike on Sept. 16, which markets currently price at about a 60% chance.
The CPI report, followed by Thursday’s PPI, will be the last major inflation evidence before the Fed decides whether rates should stay at 3.50%-3.75% or rise for the first time since 2023.