Matt Russell Backs 5 Week 2 College Bets as Oklahoma Opens -5.5 at Michigan

Q: Will early betting market overreactions to opening blowouts create hidden financial traps in the highly anticipated Ohio State and Texas showdown?

Yes — the biggest trap in Ohio State-Texas is assuming Week 1 blowouts told the full story. Both teams won big, but the betting market has kept Texas only a slight home favorite, around -1.5 to -2, which signals uncertainty rather than conviction. That restraint matters. Ohio State’s 56-3 win over Ball State looked highly repeatable: Julian Sayin was efficient, the Buckeyes posted elite passing and coverage grades, and the pass rush generated 25 pressures without needing a favorable script. Texas also won 59-7, but the box score was less clean than the score suggested. The Longhorns allowed 349 yards, gave up 8 of 14 third downs, and relied on takeaways to prevent a tighter game. That creates the hidden risk for bettors chasing the more dramatic opener. Texas’ margin may have inflated public confidence in Arch Manning and the home-field edge, while Ohio State’s own blowout may be slightly discounted because it came against a weaker opponent and because of offseason defensive turnover. Yet Ohio State’s profile appears steadier: better passing structure, stronger coverage, and a pass rush that could again pressure Manning without blitzing. The market does not look wildly overreactive on the spread itself, but the financial trap is narrative-driven betting — paying a premium for Texas based on a flashy opener and revenge story rather than underlying efficiency. If there is mispricing, it is more likely on the side of Ohio State’s moneyline or small spread than on Texas.

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Sports · Sep 9

Five Week 2 picks lead Russell’s latest card: Oklahoma -5.5 at Michigan, Arizona State +14.5 at Texas A&M, Boise State -8.5 vs Memphis, Texas -1.5 vs Ohio State and Iowa State +13.5 at Iowa.
Michigan’s line swing is the sharpest reaction point after Week 1, with Oklahoma moving from underdog to as high as -6 as Russell says Bryce Underwood’s struggles justify a major downgrade for the Wolverines.
Boise State-Memphis is framed as an early Group of Six elimination game, with Russell favoring the Broncos after their competitive showing against Oregon and questioning Memphis despite its 2-0 start.
Texas gets the nod in the marquee top-five matchup because Arch Manning looks improved, the game shifts to Austin and Ohio State’s defense is less proven after NFL departures.
Week 1’s broader betting backdrop still shapes the card: favorites covered about two-thirds of games, LSU’s rout of Clemson drove a roughly 5-point ratings jump, and few outright upsets reset the market.