Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Sep 10

Analysts Flag 5 NFL Week 1 Favorites for Upsets as Rams, Bills and Chiefs Face Early Tests

Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Sep 10

Analysts Flag 5 NFL Week 1 Favorites for Upsets as Rams, Bills and Chiefs Face Early Tests

Q: Can Josh Allen finally break his Houston curse, or will C.J. Stroud's improved offense force a major Week 1 upset?

Josh Allen can break it, but Houston still looks like the more credible Week 1 upset pick because the matchup has repeatedly exposed Buffalo’s biggest offensive weakness. The evidence is hard to ignore. Allen is 0-4 in road games at Houston and 1-4 overall against the Texans, with poor efficiency there compared with his normal standard. In the last two meetings in Houston, Buffalo lost 23-20 and 23-19, and Allen was battered by the pass rush, including an eight-sack game last season. The common theme is that Houston’s front, led by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, punishes Allen when he holds the ball and hunts deep plays. Buffalo’s path is clear if it wants to flip the script. The Bills need a disciplined quick-game plan: shorter throws, faster reads, checkdowns and more middle-of-the-field targets to Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. If Allen takes the “easy money” instead of extending plays, Buffalo has enough talent to win a close one. But Houston has the cleaner matchup advantage entering Sunday. The Texans return a defense widely viewed as one of the league’s best, and their offense appears better equipped to pressure Buffalo’s vulnerable run defense. C.J. Stroud does not need to outduel Allen in a shootout if Houston can stay balanced and let its defense control the game script. So yes, Allen can finally end the Houston curse, but the safer read is that Stroud and a stronger Texans supporting cast have a real chance to force a major Week 1 upset.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Sep 10

Five Week 1 favorites were put on upset alert, with the list centered on the Rams, Bills, Bears, Jets and Chiefs entering the 2026 opener.
San Francisco’s trip to Melbourne highlights the risk for the Rams: the 49ers arrived a week early, return Fred Warner, Nick Bosa and George Kittle, and are 31-9 since 2022 when Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Kittle all play.
Houston’s case against Buffalo rests on matchup data — Josh Allen is 0-4 on the road against the Texans, while Buffalo ranked 28th against the run and Houston upgraded its backfield with David Montgomery.
Carolina and Tennessee were framed as live underdogs because Bryce Young’s Panthers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home-underdog games, while No. 1 pick Cam Ward looked uneven in a limited preseason for the Titans.
Denver’s upset path runs through pressure on Patrick Mahomes, who is returning from ACL and LCL tears behind a shaky line; the Broncos have a league-best 131 sacks over the last two years.