Updated
Updated · Financial Times · Sep 11
US 30-Year Bond Yield Hits 5.38% as Oil Near $106 Fuels Fed Hike Fears
Updated
Updated · Financial Times · Sep 11

US 30-Year Bond Yield Hits 5.38% as Oil Near $106 Fuels Fed Hike Fears

3 articles · Updated · Financial Times · Sep 11

Summary

  • 30-year Treasury yields climbed to 5.38% on Friday, the highest in nearly 20 years, while 10-year yields touched 4.97% as the US long-bond sell-off deepened.
  • Brent crude held just under $106 a barrel after Iran-backed Houthi forces seized Yemen’s port of Mocha and moved toward the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint, raising fears of disrupted oil flows and stickier inflation.
  • Fed hike expectations strengthened with futures implying about a 70% chance of a rate increase, up from 60% early Thursday, while investors awaited August US inflation data later Friday.
  • The rout spread globally: Japan’s 10-year yield rose to 2.98%, Asian equities fell sharply, and disappointment over Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s buyback effort that missed its $6 billion goal added to market anxiety.
  • Investors said the surge has also weakened Treasuries’ haven appeal, with reduced Fed forward guidance and higher energy prices making long-dated bonds look more like a source of portfolio risk than protection.

Insights

With US debt at historic highs, can the central bank actually afford another rate hike without breaking the bond market?
Are investors misjudging the inflation threat while soaring energy costs silently push the global economy toward a sudden crash?
Could a single rebel advance in the Middle East permanently shatter the safety of the traditional investment portfolio?