2026-27 El Niño May Hit 4C Above Normal, Strongest in 150+ Years
Updated
Updated · The Conversation · Sep 10
2026-27 El Niño May Hit 4C Above Normal, Strongest in 150+ Years
3 articles · Updated · The Conversation · Sep 10
Summary
Forecasts put the 2026-27 El Niño at roughly 3C to nearly 4C above average in the Niño 3.4 region, exceeding the 2.6C peaks of the 1982-83 and 2015-16 events.
That strength is building on already record global heat—August 2026 was the hottest month on record—raising the odds that 2026 and 2027 rank among the warmest years ever measured.
Panama is already seeing severe effects: drought is arriving at least a month early, some farmers have been unable to plant, and the canal has begun limiting ship numbers and cargo loads to conserve water.
Across Central and South America, warmer seas are pushing tuna farther offshore, shifting sardines and anchovies northward, and putting coral reefs under severe bleaching risk.
Forecasters say El Niño can still produce unexpected local outcomes, but the broad risks now span life-threatening floods in normally dry Pacific coasts and drought across wetter regions from Central America to Australia.