NOAA Sees 75% Odds of Strongest El Niño Since 1950, Raising California Flood Risk
Updated
Updated · The Mercury News · Sep 10
NOAA Sees 75% Odds of Strongest El Niño Since 1950, Raising California Flood Risk
3 articles · Updated · The Mercury News · Sep 10
Summary
NOAA raised the odds of a historic El Niño, putting the chance above 90% for a strong event in October-December and 75% that it will be the strongest since records began in 1950.
ECMWF models now show a 70% chance that January-March rainfall across the California coast, Bay Area and much of the state lands in the wettest 20% of historical outcomes.
Pacific waters along the equator are about 5.4 degrees above average, and scientists estimate El Niño could add 6 to 12 inches of sea-level rise in coming months, worsening coastal flooding if storms hit at high tide.
Southern California is already seeing early effects: Hurricane Marie-driven surf damaged more than 30 oceanfront homes, flooded parking lots and parts of Highway 1, and hit Long Beach's historic boardwalk.
California agencies are preparing for a potentially stormier winter, with Santa Clara Valley Water District working on 37 flood-control projects and state emergency officials reviewing plans for flooding, mudslides, outages and evacuations.