Ohio State Edges Texas by 1 Point in Week 2 Model as CFP Odds Shift

Q: With a major injury looming for Texas, could this razor-thin Week 2 matchup instantly derail their playoff hopes?

No — not instantly, but it could put Texas under real early pressure. The playoff math argues against a doomsday view. Texas entered Week 2 with roughly a 58% chance to make the College Football Playoff, and in a 12-team field, a close nonconference loss to No. 1 Ohio State would not by itself eliminate the Longhorns. There is recent precedent for elite teams surviving an early scare or loss and still reaching the field. What makes this more serious is the context. Texas already lost its last two meetings with Ohio State, missed last year’s playoff, and now faces a toss-up game that projection models see as essentially even. If left tackle Trevor Goosby is limited or unavailable, the risk rises sharply because Ohio State’s biggest edge appears to be its pass rush and defensive front. Goosby is Texas’ best offensive lineman, a preseason All-American and likely top NFL prospect, and his injury matters more in this matchup than in most games. The good news for Texas is that Goosby’s MRI showed only a bone bruise, not structural damage. Reports suggest a two-to-three-week recovery window, which keeps open the possibility that he plays against Ohio State. But even if he is cleared, he may not be at full effectiveness against one of the nation’s most disruptive fronts. So the game would not automatically derail Texas’ playoff hopes. But if Goosby cannot hold up and Texas loses at home, the Longhorns’ margin for error entering SEC play would shrink immediately.

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Sep 11

A projection model makes Saturday’s No. 1 Ohio State at No. 4 Texas the tightest marquee game of Week 2, giving the Buckeyes a 1-point edge in Austin.
The forecast broadly tracks betting markets, with the Ohio State-Texas matchup near a coin flip and Oklahoma projected to win at Michigan by 5.1 points against a 4.5-to-5.5-point spread.
The model weighs past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings, while trying to adjust for early-season volatility from coaching changes and transfer-portal remade rosters.
Entering Week 2, Oregon has the highest College Football Playoff probability at 82%, ahead of Notre Dame and Indiana at 81%; Ohio State sits at 76% and Texas at 58%, with Saturday’s result expected to move both sharply.