A new U.S. strategy should assume AI-enabled biological attacks are likely and focus on resilience—early detection, rapid attribution, and faster recovery—rather than relying mainly on Cold War-style deterrence.
AI models trained on vast biological data, paired with cloud labs and biomanufacturing, are lowering the skill and cost needed to design, test, and scale dangerous pathogens for terrorists, rogue states, or even individuals.
More than 70 human H5N1 cases in 2024 exposed gaps in U.S. monitoring, data sharing, industry coordination, and vaccine surge capacity, underscoring how unprepared current systems are even for a naturally occurring outbreak.
The proposed response includes a nationwide pathogen-monitoring network, critical-infrastructure status for biotech, a strategic readiness reserve for diagnostics and vaccines, mandatory DNA-sequence screening, and tighter guardrails on advanced bio-AI models.
The argument is that stronger domestic biosecurity and innovation capacity—while reducing China dependencies and rebuilding international coordination—would create 'deterrence by resilience' in a world where pathogens and AI tools cross borders easily.