Atlantic Logs 0 Hurricanes as El Niño Cuts Activity to 7% of Normal

Q: Could a super El Niño lull the Atlantic into a false sense of security before a devastating late-season storm strikes?

Yes. A super El Niño can sharply suppress Atlantic storms and still leave room for a damaging late-season hurricane, especially if people mistake a quiet basin for safety. The evidence for the lull is unusually strong. Meteorologists say this year’s Atlantic activity is running at about 7% of normal, with no hurricanes yet and only five short-lived tropical storms — the latest point in the satellite era without a hurricane. Experts attribute that mainly to El Niño-driven wind shear, dry air and sinking air, with Saharan dust, fewer African storm “seeds” and strong high pressure adding to the suppression. In the main development region, shear has been far above what tropical cyclones can tolerate. But suppressed does not mean impossible. Forecasters stress that it only takes one storm. The Gulf of Mexico has had lower wind shear than much of the Atlantic, making it a plausible zone for a “homegrown” storm later in the season. Those systems can form closer to land, often with less warning time. Past seasons show the danger of reading too much into seasonal totals: 1992 was below average overall but still produced Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 disaster. A super El Niño makes a busy Atlantic season less likely, not a zero-risk season. The real danger is behavioral: people relax, delay preparation and assume the threat has passed. Experts’ message is consistent — keep supplies, insurance reviews and evacuation plans current through the end of the season on Nov. 30.

3 articles · Updated · PBS NewsHour · Sep 12

2026 has gone longer than any satellite-era Atlantic season without a hurricane, with no storm yet reaching 74 mph and none expected for at least another week.
El Niño is driving record-strong wind shear, dry air and sinking air that tear apart developing systems; in the main Atlantic breeding zone, shear is about 45 mph above what cyclones can withstand.
Only five weak tropical storms have formed, leaving overall Atlantic activity at a post-1950 record low despite oceans staying record hot for 100 days.
The Gulf of Mexico remains a late-season risk because shear there has been lower, and experts warn one storm can still be catastrophic even in a quiet year.
The same El Niño pattern is supercharging the Pacific, where the eastern basin has logged 16 named storms and the central Pacific 20, while some forecasters see higher Atlantic risk next year as El Niño fades.