Rayner Says 1.5 Million Homes Target Has Slim Chance as Costs Rise

Q: If the government misses its massive housing target by 2029, will the surge in social rent completions still count as a victory?

Yes — but only a partial one. If Labour misses 1.5 million homes by 2029, a strong rise in social rent completions would still matter because it delivers the homes in shortest supply for people on waiting lists and in temporary accommodation. Official figures show affordable completions in England rose to about 65,000 in 2024/25, including just over 12,000 for social rent, the highest since 2013/14. Homes England then reported social rent completions of 9,381 in 2025/26 across its programmes, up 65% year on year. That is a real gain, not just a headline. It also fits the area of greatest need. England had 1.34 million households on social housing waiting lists in March 2025, and housing groups say around 90,000 social homes a year are needed. On that measure, even a surge remains far below demand. The government’s £39 billion Social and Affordable Homes Programme, with at least 60% intended for social rent, could improve the pipeline, but the first wave funds more than 70,000 homes over 10 years, not enough on its own to close the gap quickly. Whether it counts as a victory therefore depends on the yardstick. If the test is the manifesto’s overall volume pledge, missing 1.5 million would be a clear failure. If the test is whether ministers shifted policy toward the most affordable tenure and increased delivery where need is sharpest, then higher social rent output would be a meaningful, defensible success — but not a substitute for the wider housing shortfall.

3 articles · Updated · bbc.co.uk · Sep 13

Angela Rayner said there is only a “slim chance” Labour will deliver 1.5 million new homes in England by the next election, calling the pledge a stretch target she is not abandoning.
Iran war fallout and rising construction costs are the main headwinds, she said, while the target requires about 300,000 homes a year through summer 2029 — a pace England has not achieved in decades.
Data through March showed building was already running behind the rate needed, and BBC Verify said new housebuilding fell in Labour’s first year in power, extending a decline that began under the Conservatives.
Rayner pointed to billions for social and affordable housing and said home starts rose 15% last year, while ministers argue planning reforms and looser green-belt rules should lift supply over time.