SportsLine Model Ranks 2026 Week 1, Drops Josh Allen Outside Top 15

Q: Which unexpected sleeper quarterback could outperform Josh Allen and secure a top-12 fantasy finish this opening weekend?

The sleeper quarterback most strongly supported by the available reporting is **Malik Willis**. SportsLine’s article withholds the exact name behind its paywalled rankings, but the surrounding Week 1 analysis repeatedly points to Willis as the kind of “unexpected” top-12 candidate who could outscore a downgraded Josh Allen. ESPN’s fantasy coverage flags Willis as flying under the radar because of his rushing upside, noting that quarterbacks who run frequently carry strong fantasy floors. It also highlights a favorable matchup against a Raiders defense that allowed 16.0 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season. Other sleeper names surfaced in related coverage, including Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, Tyler Shough and Jaxson Dart. But Stafford and Goff are not really “out-of-nowhere” options in Week 1, while Jones and Shough were generally ranked lower and described more as deep-league streamers. Willis best fits the description of a surprising quarterback fantasy managers “aren’t even thinking about” who still has a realistic path to a top-12 finish because of dual-threat production. So while SportsLine’s full rankings are needed for absolute confirmation, the strongest evidence from the combined reporting indicates **Malik Willis is the likely sleeper quarterback to watch in Week 1**.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Sep 12

SportsLine’s computer model has released its 2026 NFL Week 1 fantasy rankings, flagging Bills quarterback Josh Allen as a notable fade despite his recent elite production.
Allen lands outside the top 15 quarterbacks because he opens against Houston’s No. 1 defense, which sacked him eight times in last year’s meeting; he threw two interceptions and failed to score.
The model also boosts Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey into the top 10 at his position, citing Keenan Allen’s departure, better offensive-line health and new coordinator Mike McDaniel.
Arizona’s 27th-ranked total defense and 29th-ranked scoring defense last season further strengthen McConkey’s Week 1 outlook, with the model ranking him ahead of CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson.
SportsLine says the model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and also projects an unheralded quarterback to crack the Week 1 top 12.