ESPN Lifts 1-1 Ohio State to No. 1 FPI as Texas Falls to No. 2 After 24-23 Win

Q: How did Ohio State manage to stay atop the rankings despite a stunning loss to the very team right behind them?

Ohio State stayed No. 1 because ESPN’s Football Power Index is a predictive power rating, not a résumé poll. FPI is designed to estimate which teams are strongest going forward, using preseason expectations, roster quality, efficiency data, game results and schedule simulations, rather than simply rewarding the latest head-to-head winner. That distinction matters here. Texas beat Ohio State 24-23 in Austin, but it was a one-point home win in a game the Longhorns were only slight favorites to win. From the model’s perspective, that result did not prove Texas was clearly stronger on a neutral field. Ohio State also controlled most of the night, building a 23-3 lead before collapsing late, which likely softened the ranking damage in a system focused on overall team strength. Early in the season, FPI also still leans heavily on preseason projections because there is limited 2026 data. Ohio State opened the year as one of the model’s highest-rated teams and still carries a strong statistical profile, with players such as Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith producing at a high level. ESPN’s simulations also continue to view the Buckeyes as one of the nation’s most likely teams to win out and contend for the national title. So while polls based on résumé or head-to-head logic might put Texas first, FPI kept Ohio State on top because the model still sees the Buckeyes as slightly stronger overall despite the loss.

3 articles · Updated · KSR · Sep 13

Ohio State rose to No. 1 in ESPN’s updated FPI at 30.4, edging Texas at 30.1 even after the Longhorns’ 24-23 comeback win in Austin.
ESPN’s model still favored the Buckeyes’ overall profile after they blew a 20-point fourth-quarter lead; Texas was outscored 21-0 in the final period before Arch Manning’s rally flipped the game.
Notre Dame stayed third at 27.9 after a 52-0 rout of Rice, while Georgia climbed to fourth at 26.6 and Miami slipped to fifth at 25.7 despite a 77-7 blowout of Florida A&M.
Alabama and Texas A&M each gained two spots to seventh and eighth, USC jumped three places into the top 10, and Tennessee posted the biggest rise in the top 25 at plus-7 to No. 11.
Week 2 upsets also reshaped the rankings below the top tier, with Oregon dropping five spots to No. 13 after losing to Oklahoma State and Michigan landing at No. 22 after beating Oklahoma.