Canada’s August CPI is forecast at 3.09% year over year, up slightly from 3.03%, with prices seen rising 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis.
Ex-food-and-energy CPI is expected to accelerate to 2.1% from 1.9%—the highest since January—as firmer airfares and a steadier economy offset softer travel-tour demand.
Before seasonal adjustment, both headline and ex-food-and-energy CPI are seen flat from July, with gasoline prices little changed after a July pickup.
Bank of Canada core gauges are expected to stay broadly steady at 2.7% for CPI-Common, 2.0% for CPI-Median and 1.9% for CPI-Trim, suggesting the broader inflation pulse remains contained.