Scientists Say 1 Billion Tons of Lunar Ice Could Sustain 1 Million People for Only 100 Years
Updated
Updated · abcnews.com · Sep 14
Scientists Say 1 Billion Tons of Lunar Ice Could Sustain 1 Million People for Only 100 Years
3 articles · Updated · abcnews.com · Sep 14
Summary
A new Frontiers in Space Technologies study says even an optimistic 1 billion tons of lunar water ice would not support a large moon city for long—about two years for 1 million people without recycling, or roughly 100 years at ISS-level 98% recovery.
Most accessible ice is thought to sit in permanently shadowed craters near the lunar south pole, where Elvis and McDowell say actual reserves are likely below that headline estimate and water is the hard limit on long-term settlement.
The researchers say a smaller “Moon Village” of about 1,000 people is far more realistic, while populations near 100,000 would already require careful water management and lifestyle changes such as vertical farming and lower-meat diets.
Power looks difficult but not fatal: they found solar or nuclear could run a 1 million-person settlement, while cities in the millions would likely need nuclear generation.
The warning lands as NASA targets Artemis IV near the south pole in 2028 and U.S. and Chinese robotic missions prepare to hunt for ice as early as next year, prompting the authors to urge international cooperation over scarce lunar water.