Allianz says hyperscaler credit risk is being underpriced because off-balance-sheet obligations lift debt burdens by nearly 150% on average, pushing model-implied ratings down 1-2 notches.
Using a Merton-style model that blends equity volatility with balance-sheet data, the paper finds recognized debt alone looks manageable for Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Nvidia, while Meta screens weaker and Oracle and SpaceX already look junk-like.
Including uncommenced lease commitments drags Amazon and Microsoft into mid-investment-grade territory and pushes Meta to Ba, while Oracle and SpaceX remain around single-B in Allianz’s model.
That matters for lenders because historical S&P data link mid-BB credits to a 5.75% five-year default rate and mid-B credits to 15.6%, suggesting AI infrastructure financing may warrant wider spreads than current bond pricing implies.