Kalshi Traders See U.S. Gas Topping $4.60 in 2026 as Oil Climbs Above $103
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Sep 14
Kalshi Traders See U.S. Gas Topping $4.60 in 2026 as Oil Climbs Above $103
2 articles · Updated · CNBC · Sep 14
Summary
Kalshi traders now assign a 71% chance that the U.S. average gasoline price will exceed $4.60 a gallon in 2026, above AAA’s recent peak of $4.56 on May 21.
WTI crude rose 3.5% Monday to more than $103 a barrel as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions cast doubt on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil chokepoint.
The market also prices a 57% chance of gasoline topping $4.80 and just over a 40% chance of crossing $5.00, which would revisit the record highs last seen in June 2022.
Longer-lasting pressure is also reflected in election-day pricing: Kalshi traders put 50-50 odds on U.S. gas staying above $4.25 a gallon on Nov. 3.