Updated

Updated · Yahoo Finance · Sep 14

JPMorgan Sees iPhone 18 Pro Waits Drop to 7 Days as Foldable Duo May Divert Demand

Updated

Updated · Yahoo Finance · Sep 14

JPMorgan Sees iPhone 18 Pro Waits Drop to 7 Days as Foldable Duo May Divert Demand

Q: Will aggressive $1,200 trade-in offers be enough to save iPhone 18 Pro sales before the revolutionary Duo arrives this October?

Probably not on their own. The $1,200 trade-in promotions from AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon are strong enough to support near-term U.S. upgrades, especially because they can effectively erase the $1,199 starting price of the iPhone 18 Pro for eligible customers. They should help Apple keep sales moving through launch and may particularly cushion demand in the U.S., where JPMorgan found iPhone 18 Pro delivery times at just two days and Pro Max at 22 days, with the larger model tracking roughly in line with last year. But the early preorder data suggest the issue is not simply price. JPMorgan said global delivery waits for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are shorter than at the iPhone 17 launch, especially in China, where Pro waits fell to 13 days from 30 and Pro Max to 21 from 30. The bank warned that some of that may reflect buyers delaying purchases for Apple’s foldable Duo, which begins preorders on Oct. 16 and is likely to be especially disruptive in China, where consumers are already familiar with foldables. That means subsidies can reduce sticker shock, but they may not fully overcome a buyer’s decision to wait for a new form factor. The trade-in deals are also narrow: they depend on carrier plans, bill credits spread over 36 months, and often require trading in an iPhone 14 or newer. So the offers can stabilize iPhone 18 Pro demand, particularly in the U.S., but they are unlikely to fully “save” sales if a meaningful share of high-end buyers is holding out for Duo.

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Sep 14

Global iPhone 18 delivery waits averaged 7 days for the Pro and 19 days for the Pro Max in the first pre-order week, down from 15 and 24 days for comparable iPhone 17 models.
JPMorgan said the weaker early lead times may partly reflect buyers holding back for Apple's planned foldable Duo, though it cautioned that launch timing and supply allocation changes could also skew the comparison.
China showed the sharpest year-on-year drop, with Pro and Pro Max waits at 13 and 21 days versus 30 days for both models last year; the bank said foldables could be especially appealing there.
The US was mixed: Pro waits fell to 2 days from 4, while Pro Max stretched to 22 days from 21, suggesting stronger relative demand for the higher-end model in Apple's largest shipment market.
Apple opened iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max pre-orders on September 12 ahead of a September 18 release, and JPMorgan said the next few weeks of lead-time data will be key to judging underlying demand.