Democrats Lead Republicans 51%-43% in NYT/Siena Poll as Trump Approval Sinks to 38%
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Sep 15
Democrats Lead Republicans 51%-43% in NYT/Siena Poll as Trump Approval Sinks to 38%
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Sep 15
Summary
An 8-point Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters puts November's midterms in potential "blue wave" territory, according to the latest New York Times/Siena poll.
That margin nearly matches Democrats' 8.6-point national House vote edge in the 2018 midterms and exceeds the out-of-power party's winning margins in wave elections in 1994, 2006 and 2010.
Trump's 38% approval rating helps explain the shift; the poll says it is lower than any president's heading into a midterm since George W. Bush in 2006.
Issue ratings are even weaker, with Trump at 27% on the war in Iran and 28% on the cost of living, though Democrats still face a harder path to Senate control than to a large House majority.
To take the Senate, Democrats would need to flip at least two seats in states Trump carried by 11 points or more last election, showing how national momentum may not translate evenly across battlegrounds.
How might skyrocketing daily expenses and healthcare premiums completely reshape voter turnout in the upcoming 2026 elections?
September 2026 Midterm Outlook: Democrats Lead by 6 Points as Economic Crisis and Trump’s Unpopularity Threaten GOP
Overview
The 2026 midterm elections are being shaped by a chain reaction that began with the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which caused gas prices to surge by 52% and triggered persistent inflation. This energy shock, combined with disrupted global supply chains and soaring costs for farmers, has led to plummeting consumer confidence and rising economic anxiety, especially in rural areas. As a result, President Trump’s approval ratings have dropped sharply, creating severe headwinds for down-ballot Republican candidates. Democrats are capitalizing on this discontent, while Republicans face the challenge of defending vulnerable seats amid financial and polling uncertainties.