Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Sep 15
S&P 500 Seen Falling 10% as Fed Hike Odds Near 100%
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Sep 15

S&P 500 Seen Falling 10% as Fed Hike Odds Near 100%

2 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Sep 15

Summary

  • A 10% S&P 500 correction could follow potential Federal Reserve rate hikes starting this week, Macro Risk Advisors said, warning that tighter policy would squeeze corporate margins and weaken profit expectations.
  • A quarter-point move by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday is now almost fully priced in, up from about 60% odds a week ago as traders react to recent inflation data.
  • The index has already slipped nearly 1% in September, historically its weakest month, with elevated energy costs adding to pressure on equities.
  • US 10-year Treasury yields have climbed above 5% for the first time since 2023, underscoring how expectations for a tightening cycle are rippling across markets.

Insights

As Treasury yields breach 5%, could a looming Fed rate hike this September trigger a historic 10% stock market crash?
Will corporate profits survive the sudden squeeze of rising borrowing costs, or is the market walking into a catastrophic year-end trap?
With global energy prices surging, are emerging markets secretly bracing for a devastating capital exodus triggered by sudden U.S. tightening?