Will ongoing military strikes in the Strait of Hormuz unravel the fragile ceasefire and escalate into a permanent conflict?

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Yes—continued strikes in and around the Strait of Hormuz make the ceasefire far more likely to unravel, though the more probable outcome is not uninterrupted full-scale war but a prolonged, unstable conflict with recurring flare-ups. The evidence points that way. Since the June memorandum and the earlier April ceasefire, both sides have continued military activity: maritime enforcement, attacks on commercial shipping, U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian coastal and missile targets, and Iranian threats or live fire against vessels using routes Tehran rejects. Shipping remains far below prewar levels, and international bodies have repeatedly paused or limited evacuation and transit plans because security guarantees are not holding. Analysts cited in the reporting broadly describe the truce as a pause rather than a peace settlement. Their reasoning is consistent: the core dispute—who controls access and rules in the Strait—has not been resolved. Iran appears determined to assert authority over traffic, while Washington insists on open navigation and has shown it will use force to protect it. That leaves a built-in trigger for more clashes. At the same time, there are still brakes on total escalation. The U.S. has signaled reluctance to enter an open-ended war, while Iran faces severe economic and military strain. That makes a permanent all-out conflict less likely than a “frozen” confrontation marked by tit-for-tat strikes, coercive maritime actions, and intermittent diplomacy.…

House to Vote Within 2 Days on Impeaching Hegseth Over Iran War

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House to Vote Within 2 Days on Impeaching Hegseth Over Iran War

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