Trump Presses Fed for Cuts as 90% Rate-Hike Odds Build Before Wednesday

3 articles · Updated · NBC News · Sep 16

More than 90% market odds now point to a Fed rate increase on Wednesday, setting up an early clash with President Donald Trump, who has intensified demands for cuts less than four months into Kevin Warsh’s tenure.
August inflation ran at 3.4%—well above the Fed’s 2% target—while policymakers face fresh price pressure from $106 U.S. crude, $109 Brent, tariffs and AI-driven supply bottlenecks.
Trump has shifted from telling Warsh in May to “do your own thing” to publicly arguing rates should be 1% or 0.5% instead of 4%, while adviser Kevin Hassett said the president would weigh in if the Fed makes a “big move.”
A hike would also carry risks: unemployment is 4.1%, wage growth has slowed to 3.1%, and economists including Moody’s Mark Zandi warn tighter policy could tip a non-AI economy already under strain into layoffs.