2026 Iran War Accelerates US Decline in Gulf as 3 Wars Push Allies Toward Hedging
Updated
Updated · The National Interest Online · Sep 10
2026 Iran War Accelerates US Decline in Gulf as 3 Wars Push Allies Toward Hedging
2 articles · Updated · The National Interest Online · Sep 10
Summary
Less than a year into the 2026 Iran war, Gulf states are reassessing whether hosting US forces still protects them or instead makes them bigger targets.
Three Gulf wars frame that shift: 1991 cemented US dominance, 2003 exposed its limits, and 2026 left Gulf partners absorbing Iranian retaliation after US-Israeli attacks.
Iran’s drone strikes, information operations and alleged cyberattacks undercut confidence in hundreds of billions of dollars of US-backed air defenses and challenged assumptions about Tehran’s weakness.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have already moved to build alternative security arrangements, including the Mecca Pact and a Red Sea alliance involving more than 10 countries.
The report argues this is not a clean US exit but a prolonged transition toward a more multipolar Gulf, with regional powers hedging even as no full substitute for Washington exists.