Democrats Reach 54%-59% Senate Odds as Gasoline Tops $4 a Gallon
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Sep 16
Democrats Reach 54%-59% Senate Odds as Gasoline Tops $4 a Gallon
1 articles · Updated · CNBC · Sep 16
Summary
Kalshi traders now give Democrats a 54% chance to win the Senate and Polymarket puts it at 59% — their strongest odds since mid-April.
Those gains followed a renewed hit to Republicans from energy costs: U.S. oil has climbed above $100 a barrel, gasoline is above $4 nationally and diesel is at a record high.
Prediction markets had favored Republicans at roughly 60% before the U.S.-Iran war began on Feb. 28, then swung toward Democrats in April before easing back as the conflict deescalated and fuel pressure softened.
New polling has reinforced the shift, including a New York Times/Siena survey showing likely voters favoring Democratic House candidates by nearly 9 points ahead of November.
The Senate map still remains difficult for Democrats, who must flip several states Trump won by 10 points or more in 2024, including Alaska, Texas and Ohio.