Updated

Updated · SB Nation · Sep 16

USA TODAY Picks A'ja Wilson for 5th WNBA MVP as Angel Reese Leads 2026 Awards Forecast

Updated

Updated · SB Nation · Sep 16

USA TODAY Picks A'ja Wilson for 5th WNBA MVP as Angel Reese Leads 2026 Awards Forecast

Q: With historic records shattering right before the playoffs, could the final four games completely upend the WNBA MVP race?

Probably not. With only four regular-season games left, A’ja Wilson still holds a commanding lead in the WNBA MVP race, and the evidence behind it is unusually strong. Wilson’s case is not just narrative-driven. She leads the league at roughly 26 points per game, ranks first in blocks at 2.0, sits among the leaders in rebounds, and remains the Aces’ two-way anchor. Advanced indicators and betting markets also point the same direction: sportsbooks have had her as an overwhelming favorite, and impact metrics show a much bigger on/off effect for Las Vegas than most rivals have for their teams. That makes a late reversal difficult unless Wilson stumbles badly or misses time. The final four games can still affect the race around her, especially for second place. Olivia Miles has the strongest alternative résumé because she is leading a Minnesota team with the league’s best record while posting near-20 points and 6 assists a game as a rookie. Caitlin Clark also has a real statistical case with elite scoring and playmaking for Indiana, and Kelsey Mitchell has been one of the league’s top scorers. If Miles or Clark closes with a spectacular stretch while Wilson cools off, the debate could sharpen. But “upend” is a high bar. Wilson is chasing a record fifth MVP and a third straight, and right now her production, defensive value, and team impact still separate her from the field. The last four games are more likely to reshape the order behind Wilson than to take the award from her.

2 articles · Updated · SB Nation · Sep 16

Four games before the Sept. 27 playoffs, USA TODAY’s Studio IX projected A’ja Wilson to win a record fifth MVP, calling the race largely settled.
Wilson is averaging a league-best 26.0 points and 2.0 blocks for the No. 3 Aces despite a back issue, and has swept every Western Conference Player of the Month award this season.
Angel Reese was picked for Defensive Player of the Year after posting 16.1 points, 12.4 rebounds and a record 29 double-doubles, while Minnesota rookie Olivia Miles was forecast for Rookie of the Year.
The outlet also chose Dallas forward Jessica Shepard for Most Improved, Golden State’s Janelle Salaün for Sixth Player, and Cheryl Reeve for Coach of the Year as Minnesota chases the No. 1 seed.
All eight playoff teams are already set, but seeding remains open, leaving the final 10 days to shape both postseason matchups and the last impression on award voters.