Updated
Updated · bbc.co.uk · Sep 16
Bank of England Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as UK Inflation Hits 3.1%
Updated
Updated · bbc.co.uk · Sep 16

Bank of England Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as UK Inflation Hits 3.1%

3 articles · Updated · bbc.co.uk · Sep 16

Summary

  • Thursday’s Bank of England decision is expected to leave the benchmark rate at 3.75% for a sixth straight meeting, despite mounting pressure from faster price growth.
  • UK inflation rose to 3.1% in August from 2.9% in July—its highest in six months—as petrol, diesel and airfares climbed, with economists warning energy-led inflation has yet to peak.
  • Oil has stayed above $100 a barrel since 9 September, and Governor Andrew Bailey had already signaled rates could rise if the Iran war dragged on and crude remained elevated.
  • Markets are already pricing in tighter borrowing costs: major lenders have raised fixed mortgage rates, with the average two-year deal at 5.77% and the five-year at 5.83%, both recent highs.
  • The MPC also faces pressure from abroad after the ECB lifted rates to 2.5% and the Federal Reserve to 3.5%-3.75%, while trying not to further weaken jobs and household finances.

Insights

With oil above $100, will the Bank of England's risky rate pause backfire and trigger a massive inflation spike later this year?
Could the hidden split among UK policymakers mean homeowners are secretly facing a painful mortgage rate hike before 2026 ends?